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The economy in 2025 and economic mobility

Project type

Political consulting report + economic mobility

Date

April 2025

Location

United States

Interest on the national debt in the United States surpassed military spending in 2024.
The interest rate on the national debt was approximately 1.3% of GDP from 2005 – 2023 but spiked to 3.6% in 2024. The percent of American GDP was 6% in 1985 and went down to ~3% in 2024 being lower than the interest on national spending. According to a notable historian, this is the point when GDP/ a great power country collapses. The recommendation would be that the tariffs are good and decreasing the budget by even .2-.5% of the 100% may get it back in line with an appropriate number for a great power country.
Workers in the United States are trying to regain purchasing power after three years -between 2022 to 2025 of increasing prices. Since 2020 prices have increased by 3% more than the real value of wages which have increased by 18-19% compared to 22-23% decreasing workers real wages and what they can buy with their money. This number is getting back in line with workers wage growth being 3% and the CPI index was 2.4% so workers are earning more money compared to inflation which is great news! However, a decent amount of this .4% is due to a decrease in gas and oil prices, but wages are still increasing by .2% more than inflation. The recommendation would be to lower inflation by an additional .1-.2% and increase the minimum wage by an additional .25$-.5$ and overtime pay by 2.5% over the salary to help workers have better wages compared to inflation.
Poverty rates in the South are much higher than in the west, Midwest and northeast. Poverty rates in the west are 11% in the south 12.4% and in the northeast and Mideast are 9.8%. The south also has the highest child poverty rates at 18% of all the regions listed. To solve this problem, it is recommended to increase the minimum wages, invest in better healthcare, housing, infrastructure and better schools. The south’s economy is based on racist, Jim Crow and exploitation of freed blacks right after the civil war. However, it impacts the poor whites, Asians and Hispanics in the South as well. Only 25% of southern states are below the national average of people in poverty. The recommendation to help the southern states is more regulations on businesses, especially larger businesses, higher wages and increased development.
More than 50% of the providers of families whose pay per hour is less than 10$ are in the south which is a terrible statistic. The likely hood of a complete economic mobility shift of a child in the poorest quintile making it to the top quintile in the United States is 8%. Ways to increase this would be better funded public schools, child poverty tax refunds of an additions $500-$1500 and giving new babies born in the bottom quintile a 500$ college fund refund to put in a college saving account when they are three months old which could turn into as much as 2,500$-7,500$ which would make a dent in there college costs. This would pay for 2-9 classes and get them started on there college journey with less debt or contribute to paying for books or a desperately needed computer.
Citations
Economic Policy Innovation Center. (n.d.). Home. EPIC for America. Retrieved April 12, 2025, from https://epicforamerica.org/
Economic Policy Institute. (n.d.). Economic Policy Institute | Research and Ideas for Shared Prosperity. https://www.epi.org/

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